Mental Model · 01
Archer’s Mindset
Acknowledge the universe of unknowns, then take aim. Probabilistic thinking for making better educated guesses.
The ability to make an educated guess or estimation is one of the most important yet challenging parts to building great products. Think about how frequently in life and in work, we are asked to do this! Think about the implications of being correct and of being incorrect. The stakes can be high! A critical mental model to being successful at this work is called the Archer's Mindset.
¶The Art of Guessing
- Taking aim is effective (not random) guessing. Start by asking "what do I already know that will make my guess more educated and how can I apply that knowledge" to whatever it is you are estimating.
- Only after this, can you begin to explore and consider the stuff that you do not know - still you are only operating in the world of known unknowns. Fundamentally, if you don’t ask a question you won’t get an answer.
- The transition of moving what you don't know to what you know is the constructive work that gets you to an educated guess. We have a number of tools we use to document and eventually apply this constructed knowledge when making estimations - Burndown Lists are one for example.
- Probabilistic Thinking is essentially trying to estimate, using some tools of math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome coming to pass. It is one of the best tools we have to improve the accuracy of our decisions. In a world where each moment is determined by an infinitely complex set of factors, probabilistic thinking helps us identify the most likely outcomes. When we know these, our decisions can be more precise and effective.
¶Have you ever played Bridge?
- The basis of this game is that you and your partner sit across from each other, around a table of 4, and work together to win tricks (hands).
- The game starts with a betting round, where you and your partner are essentially placing bets based on what you cumulatively hold together without seeing each other's opening hands.
- Once the game play begins, you and your partner begin to work together to win hands to match your bet.
- Great bridge players can operate, on the bet alone, with a near complete understanding of their partner's hand. They play in unison to win together.
- They understand the permutations of hands as they come out and even if something unexpected happens, they understand how that new reality forks the permutations of their future gameplay.
- Bridge is a lot like business in that we first spend time taking the Archer's Mindset -- placing bets as a mechanism to uncover things we know vs. things don't know
- Then we make an educated guess, begin to play with a plan and then make adjustments as reality unfolds.
- What separates good from great players is the ability to plan all of the permutations with imperfect information and still be good enough to cover your bet.
- Also great players are so aware of the reality that is unfolding in front of them that they are able to then adjust and execute on the fly and asynchronously